Welcome!
I’m a Ph.D candidate in Finance at Warwick Business School. I work on Macro-Finance, International Finance, and Economics of AI. I served as a Technical Advisor at the Bank for International Settlements (Feb-Apr 2026).
I am on the 2026/2027 job market.
Working Papers
Who Captures AI Deflation? Quality-Adjusted Prices, Markups, and Pass-Through in AI Services. Job Market Paper
Abstract
Between falling computing costs and the firms that use artificial intelligence (AI) stands an oligopoly. To study who captures the gains from cheaper and more capable AI, I link inference prices, token usage, and capability benchmarks for over 300 models on OpenRouter, a centralized AI marketplace, to daily GPU rental costs. Quality-adjusted prices of AI inference fell by 77 percent over 2024–2026, twice the decline in nominal prices. A structural model of demand recovers provider markups and marginal costs, showing that the pass-through of lower computing costs declines with market power and that most of the increase in consumer surplus comes from the entry of more capable models rather than lower prices. Finally, combining the quality-adjusted price index with U.S. input–output tables shows that falling AI prices reduce the U.S. producer price index by a cumulative 31 basis points through the production network.
Selected Presentations: EFA Doctoral Tutorial (2026), Edinburgh Financial Technology Conference (2026), Fisher AI in Business Conference (2026, scheduled), AFA PhD Poster (2027, scheduled)
Foreign Exchange Interventions and Intermediary Constraints (with Alex Ferreira, Rory Mullen, Giovanni Ricco, and Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj). Paper
Abstract
The dollar intermediation channel of foreign exchange interventions (FXI), a form of the portfolio balance channel, arises from the imperfect substitutability between domestic currency and USD, the dominant global currency, along with financial frictions limiting USD liquidity access. This channel plays a key role in Banco Central do Brasil’s FXI. High-frequency data on over 8,000 FXI events (1999– 2023) show that unanticipated spot sales appreciate the domestic currency, reduce covered interest parity deviations, and crowd out private intermediation, especially when intermediaries are constrained. Our results support an extended Gabaix and Maggiori (2015) model, in which constrained intermediaries amplify intervention effectiveness.
Selected Presentations: BIS–BoE–ECB–IMF Spillover Conference (2026), WFA (2025), SFS Cavalcade NA (2025), European Central Bank, Brazilian Central Bank, the Oxford Saïd-VU SBE Macro-finance Conference (2025), MMF (2025), CEPR Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Markets (2024), CEBRA Annual Meeting (2024)
Under Pressure? Central Bank Independence Meets Blockchain Prediction Markets (with Barry Eichengreen, Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, and Junxuan Wang). Paper VoxEU
Abstract
Employing data from Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market where users trade on Federal Reserve rate decisions and scenarios related to central bank independence, we construct a hawk–dove score for wallets and link beliefs to monetary policy expectations. Users who believe President Trump will fire Fed Chair Powell, and who expect stronger political pressure on the central bank, hold more dovish views and expect lower short-term rates than other users. They also expect higher long-term Treasury yields and higher inflation, consistent with reduced policy credibility. The findings indicate that political events affect expectations through perceived threats to central bank independence.
Selected Presentations: SFS Cavalcade NA (2026), SGF (2026), MMF (2026), The Global AI Finance Research Conference (2025), Bank of Lithuania, AEA (2027, scheduled)
Captive Capital: How Private Equity Shapes Insurer Portfolios (with Lorenzo Bretscher, Philippe Mueller, and Karamfil Todorov). Paper
Abstract
We provide the first systematic evidence on how private equity (PE) vertical integration - owning the insurer, managing the CLO, and sponsoring the underlying borrowers - shapes insurer portfolios and CLO collateral. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that acquisition by a PE sponsor that also manages CLOs raises the insurer’s holdings of same-sponsor CLO tranches by roughly 20 percentage points within four years, whereas acquisition by a PE sponsor without a CLO platform produces a far smaller increase. Inside those CLOs, the three largest PE credit-platform sponsors allocate 5-8% of collateral to loans of their own portfolio companies. These effects compound at the most vertically integrated sponsor, whose affiliated insurers absorb a majority of insurer-held same-sponsor CLO principal and tilt toward riskier tranches.
Selected Presentations: BIS
Offshore Forwards and Exchange Rate Transmission in Emerging Markets (with Gerardo Ferrara, Andreas Schrimpf, and Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj). [Draft available upon request]
Selected Presentations: LCH ForexClear, MMF (2026)
Teaching
Graduate Teaching Assistant, Warwick Business School
Data Analysis for Finance (Msc in Finance), 2023-2026
Research methodology for Financial Management (Msc in Business & Finance), 2023-2026
Finance 1: Financial Markets (BSc in Accounting & Finance), 2025-2026
Fundamentals of Finance (BSc in Accounting & Finance), 2024-2025