Welcome!
I’m a Ph.D candidate in Finance at Warwick Business School. I work on Macro-Finance, International Finance, and Asset Pricing. I served as a Technical Advisor at the Bank for International Settlements (Feb-Apr 2026).
I am on the 2026/2027 job market.
Working Papers
Who Captures AI Deflation? Quality-Adjusted Prices, Markups, and Pass-Through in AI Services. Job Market Paper
Abstract
Between falling compute costs and the firms that use AI stands an oligopoly. I build a novel dataset linking prices, usage, and capabilities to GPU rental costs for over 200 models competing on OpenRouter, a centralized AI marketplace. Structural demand estimates recover provider markups: pass-through of cost declines falls with market power, and the premium segment passes through nothing, retaining the declines as margin. Quality-adjusted prices still fell 78 percent over 2024--2026, twice the nominal price decline, cutting U.S. PPI by a cumulative 160 basis points through the production network. Entry of more capable models, not price cuts, drives consumer surplus gains.
Under Pressure? Central Bank Independence Meets Blockchain Prediction Markets (With Barry Eichengreen, Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj, and Junxuan Wang). Paper VoxEU
Abstract
Employing data from Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market where users trade on Federal Reserve rate decisions and scenarios related to central bank independence, we construct a hawk–dove score for wallets and link beliefs to monetary policy expectations. Users who believe President Trump will fire Fed Chair Powell, and who expect stronger political pressure on the central bank, hold more dovish views and expect lower short-term rates than other users. They also expect higher long-term Treasury yields and higher inflation, consistent with reduced policy credibility. The findings indicate that political events affect expectations through perceived threats to central bank independence.
Selected Presentations: SFS Cavalcade NA (2026), SGF (2026), The Global AI Finance Research Conference 2025, Bank of Lithuania.
Foreign Exchange Interventions and Intermediary Constraints (with Alex Luiz Ferreira, Rory Mullen, Giovanni Ricco, and Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj). Paper
Abstract
The dollar intermediation channel of foreign exchange interventions (FXI), a form of the portfolio balance channel, arises from the imperfect substitutability between domestic currency and USD, the dominant global currency, along with financial frictions limiting USD liquidity access. This channel plays a key role in Banco Central do Brasil’s FXI. High-frequency data on over 8,000 FXI events (1999– 2023) show that unanticipated spot sales appreciate the domestic currency, reduce covered interest parity deviations, and crowd out private intermediation, especially when intermediaries are constrained. Our results support an extended Gabaix and Maggiori (2015) model, in which constrained intermediaries amplify intervention effectiveness.
Selected Presentations: WFA (2025), SFS Cavalcade NA (2025), European Central Bank, Brazilian Central Bank, the 2025 Oxford Saïd-VU SBE Macro-finance Conference, 2025 Annual Conference of the Money, Macro and Finance Society, 2024 CEPR Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Markets, 2024 CEBRA Annual Meeting.
Works in Progress
- Offshore Forwards in Emerging Markets: Speculation and Price Discovery
Teaching
Graduate Teaching Assistant, Warwick Business School
Data Analysis for Finance (Msc in Finance), 2023-2026
Research methodology for Financial Management (Msc in Business & Finance), 2023-2026
Finance 1: Financial Markets (BSc in Accounting & Finance), 2025-2026
Fundamentals of Finance (BSc in Accounting & Finance), 2024-2025